By the editors at Reliable. Last updated October 8, 2026.
The short version: The sources reviewed do not provide a national dollar cost of supply chain disruption for U.S. manufacturing. Government and central bank sources measure how often plants are constrained and how much pressure supply chains are under.
The Census Bureau asks about 7,500 plants each quarter why they operate below full capacity. One answer choice is an insufficient supply of materials.
In December 2021, 90% of manufacturers in a Philadelphia Fed survey reported supply chain issues as a factor constraining capacity utilization.
A Commerce Department information request found that median chip inventory among responding buyers fell from 40 days in 2019 to less than 5 days in 2021, for the products hardest to acquire.
Peer-reviewed research measures effects on public companies. One study associated disruption announcements with a 10.28% abnormal decrease in shareholder value. Another found lower sales growth at customers whose suppliers were hit by natural disasters.
The dollar figures reviewed here come from a consulting firm model and a vendor-commissioned survey of large organizations in five sectors, including government. Each measures something different, and none is specific to manufacturing plants.
How We Evaluated
Independent editorial analysis based on publicly available government data, central bank publications, peer-reviewed research, and the original pages behind widely quoted estimates.
Reliable Magazine does not sell supply chain software, risk services, or consulting and has no commercial interest in routing readers toward any particular vendor. Reliable does not accept payment for rankings. Vendors may sponsor enhanced listings with additional detail, but editorial rankings are independent. Read our editorial policy.
We sorted every figure into three tiers and kept the tiers apart:
- Government and central bank sources: the Census Bureau, the Department of Commerce, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Peer-reviewed research: one event study of disruption announcements and one study of natural disasters in production networks.
- Consulting and vendor material: the McKinsey Global Institute and Interos, a supply chain risk software company, with each commercial stake stated at each use.
Three rules applied throughout. Each figure stays tied to its population, unit, and year. Nothing is summed or converted across sources. A figure appears only if a named source page prints it.
What Government Sources Measure
Plants short of materials
The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization covers approximately 7,500 manufacturing and publishing establishments. It collects each plant’s actual production, its production at full capacity, and its reasons for operating below full capacity.
The reasons include an insufficient supply of materials, insufficient orders, and an insufficient supply of local labor. A 2024 Federal Register notice describes these responses as valuable indicators for distinguishing supply chain bottlenecks from demand constraints.
An analysis of the Census data published in Supply Chain Management Review reports that roughly 11% of U.S. manufacturing plants cited raw material shortages as a key impediment to capacity utilization in the third quarter of 2024. The article states that the share had declined substantially from 2021 and 2022 and remained above the levels observed from 2014 to 2019.
The survey estimates the share of establishments reporting each constraint. It does not assign a dollar value to the lost output.
A regional survey in December 2021
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia surveys manufacturers in its district each month. In December 2021, a special question asked what was constraining capacity utilization. Most firms reported supply chain issues (90%) and labor issues (76%).
The result describes one Federal Reserve district in one month.
A global pressure index
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. It combines global transportation cost measures with supply chain components of manufacturing surveys across seven economies, and it is reported in standard deviations from its average since 1997.
The New York Fed states that pressures peaked in December 2021. Published readings for that month exceed 4 standard deviations above the average, and the exact value has changed as the underlying data were revised.
The index measures pressure. It carries no dollar unit.
Chip inventories
In January 2022 the Department of Commerce published results from a request for information on the semiconductor supply chain. The department received more than 150 responses, including from nearly every major semiconductor producer and from companies in multiple consuming industries.
Two findings bear on manufacturers that buy chips:
- For the semiconductor products that were hardest to acquire, median inventory among responding buyers fell from 40 days in 2019 to less than 5 days in 2021.
- Median demand for the chips highlighted by buyers was as much as 17% higher in 2021 than in 2019.
Responses were voluntary, and the figures describe the companies that answered.
What Peer-Reviewed Research Found
Stock market reaction to disruption announcements (2003)
Hendricks and Singhal studied 519 announcements of supply chain glitches that resulted in production or shipment delays, made from 1989 to 2000. The study appeared in the Journal of Operations Management.
The abstract reports that the announcements were associated with an abnormal decrease in shareholder value of 10.28%, measured around the announcement date and adjusted for industry and market-wide influences. Larger firms experienced a less negative market reaction.
The figure is a change in market value at publicly traded firms. It is a different quantity from a plant’s operating cost.
Natural disasters in production networks (2016)
Barrot and Sauvagnat used natural disasters in the United States to trace how a shock at one firm reaches others. The study appeared in The Quarterly Journal of Economics.
The published abstract states that affected suppliers impose substantial output losses on their customers, especially when they produce specific inputs, and that the losses translate into market value losses and spill over to other suppliers.
In a column describing the research, the authors report three estimates:
- Sales growth at supplier firms directly hit by a natural disaster dropped by around five percentage points.
- Sales growth at their customers dropped by around two percentage points.
- Customers’ stock returns dropped by around one percentage point.
The authors report that the effect on customers occurred only when the disaster hit a supplier of specific inputs. The sample consists of publicly listed firms and their reported supplier links.
Consulting and Vendor Estimates
McKinsey Global Institute (2020)
The McKinsey Global Institute published Risk, Resilience, and Rebalancing in Global Value Chains in August 2020. McKinsey sells supply chain consulting services.
The report states that, averaging across industries, companies can expect supply chain disruptions lasting a month or longer to occur every 3.7 years.
It also estimates that companies can expect losses equal to 42% of one year’s EBITDA over the course of a decade, on average. That figure is a modeled expectation that combines the estimated frequency of disruptions with their estimated financial impact by industry.
Interos (2022)
Interos sells supply chain risk software. It commissioned the market research firm Vanson Bourne to survey 1,500 senior decision makers in procurement and IT or security roles from January to March 2022.
The survey covered five sectors with 300 respondents each: aerospace and defense, financial services, IT and technology, pharmaceuticals and life sciences, and national or central government.
One fifth of the sample came from government organizations.
Respondents estimated average annual revenue losses from supply chain disruptions at $182 million. The figure is a cross-sector average. Organizations indicated that on average they were affected by three significant supply chain events in the prior 12 months.
Interos reports average annual losses of $143 million for financial services firms and $226 million for pharmaceuticals and life sciences.
The estimate is vendor-reported and self-estimated, and it does not represent a typical manufacturing plant.
Why These Figures Cannot Be Combined
Each source uses its own unit:
- Share of plants citing a constraint (Census, Philadelphia Fed)
- Standard deviations from an index average (New York Fed)
- Days of inventory (Commerce)
- Percentage change in shareholder value (Hendricks and Singhal)
- Percentage points of sales growth (Barrot and Sauvagnat)
- Share of one year’s EBITDA over a decade (McKinsey Global Institute)
- Dollars of lost revenue per organization per year (Interos)
They also describe different populations: U.S. plants, one Federal Reserve district, chip buyers that answered a request, publicly traded firms, and survey respondents at large organizations.
When quoting any of these figures, state the source, the unit, the population, and the year.
At a Glance
| Figure | Source | Year | What it measures | Manufacturing-specific | Provenance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roughly 11% of plants | Census plant capacity survey, as analyzed in Supply Chain Management Review | Third quarter 2024 | Plants citing raw material shortages as an impediment to capacity utilization | Yes | Government survey; secondary analysis |
| 90% of firms | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey | December 2021 | Firms reporting supply chain issues constraining capacity utilization | Yes; one district | Regional Fed survey; special question |
| More than 4 standard deviations above average | New York Fed Global Supply Chain Pressure Index | December 2021 peak | Composite of transportation costs and manufacturing survey components | Partly | Central bank index; revised across releases |
| 40 days to less than 5 days | Department of Commerce request for information | 2019 to 2021 | Median chip inventory among responding buyers, hardest-to-acquire products | Partly; chip-consuming industries | Voluntary government request; 150+ responses |
| 10.28% abnormal decrease in shareholder value | Hendricks and Singhal, Journal of Operations Management | 2003 | Stock reaction around glitch announcements; sample of 519, 1989 to 2000 | No; publicly traded firms | Peer-reviewed event study |
| About 2 percentage points lower sales growth | Barrot and Sauvagnat, Quarterly Journal of Economics | 2016 | Customers of suppliers hit by natural disasters | No; publicly listed firms | Peer-reviewed; figures from the authors’ column |
| Every 3.7 years; 42% of one year’s EBITDA per decade | McKinsey Global Institute | 2020 | Expected frequency of month-long disruptions and modeled losses | No; cross-industry average | Consulting firm research; modeled estimate |
| $182 million per year | Interos Resilience 2022 | 2022 | Self-estimated average annual lost revenue at large organizations in five sectors | No; includes financial services and government | Vendor-commissioned survey; 1,500 respondents |
Honest Limitations
- No national cost series. The sources reviewed do not provide a dollar cost of supply chain disruption for U.S. manufacturing, and this guide does not construct one.
- The 11% figure is a secondary analysis. It comes from a trade publication’s analysis of Census data. We did not extract the series from the Census tables. The Census Bureau publishes the survey quarterly, and releases after the third quarter of 2024 are not reflected here.
- The Philadelphia Fed figure is regional and dated. It describes one district in December 2021, the month the New York Fed index peaked.
- The pressure index is revised. Readings for past months change as source data are updated, so quoted peak values differ by release.
- The Commerce figures come from voluntary responses. They describe the companies that answered and the products those companies found hardest to acquire.
- The shareholder value study is old. Its announcements date from 1989 to 2000, and it measures stock prices.
- The disaster study covers listed firms. Its percentage-point figures come from the authors’ column on a working paper version, and the published abstract prints no numbers.
- The McKinsey figure is modeled. It is an expected value built from assumed frequencies and impacts, published by a firm that sells related services.
- The Interos figure is self-reported. It comes from a survey commissioned by a company that sells supply chain risk software. Its 1,500 respondents worked at large organizations in five sectors, including financial services and national or central government, so the $182 million figure is a cross-sector average.
- Nothing is adjusted. This guide does not convert any figure for inflation or scale it to plant size.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much do supply chain disruptions cost manufacturers?
The sources reviewed do not provide a national dollar cost for U.S. manufacturing. Interos, a supply chain risk software company, reported self-estimated average annual lost revenue of $182 million in a 2022 survey of 1,500 decision makers at large organizations in five sectors, including government. The McKinsey Global Institute estimated expected losses equal to 42% of one year’s EBITDA over a decade, averaged across industries. Each figure has its own unit, population, and method, and neither represents a typical manufacturing plant.
Is there a government measure of supply chain disruption in manufacturing?
Yes. The Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization asks approximately 7,500 establishments why they operate below full capacity, and an insufficient supply of materials is one of the reasons. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Neither source reports a dollar cost.
How often do supply chain disruptions happen?
The McKinsey Global Institute stated in 2020 that, averaging across industries, companies can expect supply chain disruptions lasting a month or longer every 3.7 years. Interos reported in 2022 that surveyed organizations were affected, on average, by three significant supply chain events in the prior 12 months. The two figures use different definitions of a disruption.
How far did chip inventories fall during the semiconductor shortage?
A Department of Commerce request for information found that, for the semiconductor products hardest to acquire, median inventory among responding buyers fell from 40 days in 2019 to less than 5 days in 2021. The department received more than 150 voluntary responses. Median demand for the chips highlighted by buyers was as much as 17% higher in 2021 than in 2019.
Do supply chain disruptions affect a company’s stock price?
One peer-reviewed study found an association. Hendricks and Singhal examined 519 announcements of supply chain glitches from 1989 to 2000 and reported an abnormal decrease in shareholder value of 10.28% around the announcement date. Larger firms experienced a less negative reaction. The study covers publicly traded firms.
How many manufacturing plants report material shortages?
An analysis of Census Bureau data in Supply Chain Management Review reports that roughly 11% of U.S. manufacturing plants cited raw material shortages as a key impediment to capacity utilization in the third quarter of 2024. In December 2021, 90% of manufacturers in a Philadelphia Fed survey reported supply chain issues constraining capacity utilization. The two surveys ask different questions of different populations.
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Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau. About the Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization (survey scope and content).
- Federal Register. Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization: Comment Request (2024 notice describing uses of the survey).
- Supply Chain Management Review. Raw material shortages have abated, but some lingering issues remain (analysis of Census plant capacity data).
- Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. December 2021 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (special questions on capacity utilization).
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: March 2022 Update (index construction, December 2021 peak, and revisions).
- U.S. Department of Commerce. Results from Semiconductor Supply Chain Request for Information (January 2022).
- Journal of Operations Management. The effect of supply chain glitches on shareholder wealth (Hendricks and Singhal, 2003).
- The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Input Specificity and the Propagation of Idiosyncratic Shocks in Production Networks (Barrot and Sauvagnat, 2016).
- Centre for Economic Policy Research. Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks (authors’ column; percentage-point estimates).
- McKinsey Global Institute. Risk, resilience, and rebalancing in global value chains (August 2020; consulting firm research).
- Interos. Resilience 2022: Interos Annual Global Supply Chain Report (May 2022; vendor-commissioned survey).
