Predictive Maintenance or Just Educated Guesswork?

The Problem with Predictive Maintenance

I’m a big believer in oil analysis, vibration analysis, infrared, and using various kinds of ultrasound. I also favor the tons of new tech that lets us look into aspects of the machine and see its condition in new ways.

But predictive maintenance – hogwash, snake oil. Only in the past few years have big data analysis and AI tools been used to provide predictions worth the paper they are printed on.

So what is my problem? My problem is with imprecise language.

My problem is when we recruit words to mean something different from what they mean. When we say something that’s meaning is not what the words mean, when you look closely, we will (intentionally) confuse people.

Is infrared scanning, as in the dictionary, “relating to or having the effect of predicting an event or result?” To be clear from your experience, you could predict a failure from a scan, but the scan itself is informational and in no way predictive.

A Better Name: Detective Maintenance

I propose that we change the name of Predictive Maintenance to Detective Maintenance. What is it we are doing? Let’s take a look at an infrared picture. Sure, you could argue that the middle wire will fail.

I could say that after seeing how you put away the French Fries and greasy bacon cheeseburger, you will expire, too. It might be true (eventually), but it is not accurate.

What if we say infrared is a way to detect issues that could lead to problems? So the picture above and the image of you with the burger are conditions that might lead to problems.

We have successfully detected potential problems. There is no bogus prediction involved. How many of you faced down meetings where your toes were held to the fire because predictions from your predictive maintenance didn’t turn out? Executives love it when the maintenance folks scream the sky is falling; my predictive gear says it (and nothing happens).

We detect issues—prediction is just a guess with better marketing.

Consider that we have detected an anomaly and plan to investigate, fix it, watch it, sit on it, or do whatever. I don’t know, but it sounds more credible to me.

Soon, predictive maintenance systems will text you, “Get the heck out of the area if you want to live,” or something equally clear. Soon, a work order will be issued saying the bearings on the loader need replacing before next Thursday, when they will likely fail (AI says 93% probable).

Of course, this describes a Prescriptive Maintenance work order (which we all have dreamt about along with angels and Trumpets).

So, let’s vote predictive or detective?